Is Bama that much better?

Posted on: October 25,2012

Alabama opened as as a 24 point favorite over Mississippi State. The betting line has moved to 22.
There’s a lot of misconception about what all that means.
The first misconception is that Las Vegas oddsmakers believe Alabama is 24 points better than MSU
Not true. Oddsmakers believe that the betting public perceives Alabama is 24 points better than State. Oddsmakers are hoping to set the betting line to where there will be equal money bet on both teams. That way, the house (the bookie or casino) can’t lose because of the 10 percent house advantage. The bettor has to bet risk 11 dollars to win 10 or a 110 to win 100.
When the line goes down, as this one has, it means that considerably more money is being bet on Mississippi State than on Alabama. The line is moved in hopes of enticing more bets on Bama.
You should know than 24-point underdogs win almost every week of the season. State was a 20-point underdog when it beat Alabama in 1980.
The formula for that magnitude of upset usually includes several turnovers by the favorites and some big plays in the kicking game by the underdog. It happens, not all that often, but it happens.
I happen to think Bama would win nine times if they played 10, but this might be the one. It helps State that Bama plays LSU next Saturday. There’s no doubt about that.

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